Home Prices in U.S. Probably Fell at Slower Pace, Confidence Up
By Anthony Longo 29 09 2009via Bloomberg this morning…
Home values in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas probably declined at a slower pace and consumer confidence improved, signs the recession is abating as the real-estate crisis eases, economists said before reports today.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell 14.2 percent in July from a year earlier, the least in 17 months, according to the median forecast of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Conference Board may say its gauge of consumer sentiment rose this month to the highest level in a year.
Foreclosure-driven price declines, low borrowing costs and government tax credits for first-time buyers have lifted home sales for much of this year, helping to slow the decline in prices. Stability in real-estate values and rising stock prices may help set the stage for a recovery in the consumer spending that accounts for two thirds of the economy.
“The year-on-year decline in home prices is slowing considerably, showing a bottoming in home prices,” said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “We look for overall confidence to improve in the near term as the general economy rebounds.”
The S&P/Case-Shiller figures are due at 9 a.m. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from declines of 12.5 percent to 15 percent. Year-over-year records for the gauge, which was down 15.4 percent in June from a year earlier, began in 2001, and the measure has fallen every month since January 2007.
At 10 a.m., the New York-based Conference Board may report its consumer confidence index increased to 57 this month from 54.1 in August, according to the Bloomberg survey median.
Home Sales Rise
Combined sales of new and existing homes have risen for four out of the last five months, signaling the worst of the housing crisis is over.
Sales of new homes climbed in August to the highest level in almost a year, the Commerce Department reported last week. Sales of existing homes unexpectedly declined, while remaining at the second-highest level in 23 months, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
